After being promised a future in NATO in 2008, Ukraine is still waiting for membership. At last year’s NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pleas for membership, or at least a timeline to membership, was unceremoniously rebuffed by the alliance.
“Ukraine isn’t ready for NATO membership,” President Joe Biden said at the July 2023 NATO gathering. He reiterated that position in a recent interview with TIME. While American officials continue to say that Kiev’s future is in the bloc, that alliance is pressuring Zelensky to downplay the issue at this year’s NATO summit.
Last year, Zelensky reacted furiously to his demands for NATO membership not being met. “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine,” he said.
This year’s NATO summit, to be held in Washington in July, will be presented differently to the world. Though Zelensky and Biden are expected to sign a security agreement between the two countries in July, NATO will not offer Ukraine membership or a timeline for membership at the upcoming summit.
After another year of fighting for NATO’s right to expand to Ukraine, Zelensky will be even angrier than last year. But no one will know it. To avoid last year’s embarrassing rejection of Ukraine’s aspirations, NATO officials have engaged in “expectation management,” muting NATO members supportive of Ukraine’s accession while warning Zelensky not to demand the “impossible.” NATO officials have asked Zelensky not to pressure NATO members to publicly support a timetable for NATO membership this time.
The NATO charter makes it clear to Ukraine that it cannot become a NATO member until the war ends. The NATO charter says that countries that aspire to membership must not be at war, must be committed “to resolve conflicts peacefully,” and cannot have territorial disputes.
NATO officials have also made it clear that Ukraine will not become a member until after the war has ended. The irony, though, is that it is becoming increasingly likely that the war can only be ended by a Ukrainian promise not to join NATO.
The bleak reality of Ukraine’s potential future in the bloc does not reflect the rosy public narrative. NATO membership has historically been promised to Ukraine and withdrawn from Ukraine in a provocative and divisive manner.
Hellbound and Down 