According to the Case-Shiller index, home prices have increased 44 percent since February 2020. That’s just an average, of course, and some markets have seen increases in prices that are far higher. Even in middle-American housing markets, however—where home prices are supposedly more reasonable than on the coasts—prices have soared. In Cleveland, for example, the index is up 40 percent since early 2020. During the same period, the index rose 50 percent in Atlanta and 33 percent in Chicago. This sort of price inflation is not merely a product of the physical supply of housing. Demand for housing has been greatly inflated by nearly fifteen years of historic lows in interest rates, following by immense flows of newly created money during the Covid Panic. As economist Brendan Brown has noted, even as consumer price growth appeared low from 2008 to 2020, the effects of monetary inflation have long been visible in asset price inflation (e.g., home prices).
It is not at all surprising then that property taxes are rising as well. Fortunately for homeowners, though, property taxes have so far not kept up with market prices. According to an April report on property taxes from housing analytics company ATTOM,
$339.8 billion in property taxes were levied on single-family homes in 2022, up 3.6 percent from $328 billion in 2021. The increase was more than double the 1.6 percent growth in 2021, although smaller than the 5.4 percent increase the prior year.
The report also shows that the average tax on single-family homes in the U.S. increased 3 percent in 2022, to $3,901, after rising 1.8 percent the previous year.
At the individual state and local levels, some property tax hikes have soared. Michigan, for instance, has raised property taxes by levels not seen in 28 years. Some local governments are hiking property taxes by 20 percent or more. In many areas, however, property tax increases have not even kept up with inflation. So, if home prices are rising at 40 percent or more on average, why are property tax collections not anywhere close? Much of the reason for these relatively modest increases is the fact property tax assessments are not instantaneous, but are only modified at often lengthy intervals. In other words, many homeowners may find that there is still plenty of property-tax related bad news still to come. Realtor.com reports, for example:
Property tax bills have been rising or are slated to go up as local governments capitalize on the surge in home prices over the past few years. And there is little recourse for homeowners stuck with the higher tabs.
“Most people should expect a property tax increase,” says Carl Davis, a research director at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. “We’re seeing [property] assessments catch up with the market right now. That process will continue to unfold over the next few years.” Local governments are facing rising costs just like everyone else. And the wild price growth during the COVID-19 pandemic has presented municipalities with a golden opportunity to do something about it.
Kiplinger’s notes that state and local governments will be doing everything they can to translate rising home prices into more revenue:
Homeowners in areas that have experienced significant appreciation in home values should be prepared for the possibility that their local jurisdiction will raise rates to match higher assessments—even as home sales have leveled off, experts say. For local governments, inflation has driven up the cost of everything from public employees’ salaries to school supplies. In addition, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial property owners are struggling with a large number of vacancies, which has led to a decline in revenue from those sources.
Hellbound and Down 